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  • Larsdotter, Kersti (författare)
  • Fighting Transnational Insurgents : the South African Defence Force in Namibia, 1966-1989
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. - 1057-610X. ; 37:12, s. 1024-1038
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Transnational insurgents are a common feature of contemporary wars, but research on how to address this problem is still scarce. This article examines the South African Defence Force's (SADF) counterinsurgency against Namibian transnational insurgents. It concludes that the South African forces focused a large amount of their efforts outside the borders of Namibia. Highly coercive operations in Angola and Zambia created the space for hearts and minds activities in Namibia, as well as forcing neighboring states to end their support for the insurgents. Although the war in Namibia is somewhat different from contemporary wars, SADF's cross-border strategy gives us some important insights into the regional dynamics of civil wars.
  • Mohlin, Marcus, 1965- (författare)
  • Cloak and Dagger in Libya : The Libyan Thuwar and the Role of Allied Special Forces
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: The NATO Intervention in Libya : Lessons learned from the campaign. - London : Routledge. - 9780415705493
  • Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt)abstract
    • The NATO led intervention in Libya has very often been described as consisting of navy and air forces and that they contributed to the winning of the campaign. Not fully recognised is the fact that many nations also sent contingents of special forces in support of operations. These special operations forces trained and advised many rebel groups that contributed to the outcome of the conflict.
  • Scott, David, et al. (författare)
  • Capturing the citizen perspective in crisis management exercises : possibilities and challenges
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Emergency Services. - 2047-0894. ; 4:1, s. 86-102
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Purpose– Supporting and communicating with citizens is a vital part of societal crisis management. Training exercises may offer an opportunity to develop capabilities among managers in this regard. The purpose of this paper is to examine this potential in an analysis of how citizens were portrayed and perceived by participants in a major crisis management exercise.Design/methodology/approach– Observation, document analysis and short interviews during the exercise were used as data collection methods. Data were subjected to thematic analysis to capture core themes in relation to the research aim.Findings– Patterns in how citizens’ reactions were portrayed in the exercise were identified to form a citizen behaviour typology. Observations during the exercise also demonstrated some of the challenges in incorporating the citizen perspective. However, findings regarding the perception of the citizen perspective also demonstrate the ability of exercise participants to meet and respond to public behaviours with respect and seriousness.Originality/value– Variation is an important condition for learning in exercises, and the identified typology is suggested as a starting point for achieving this in incorporation of the citizen perspective in training scenarios. The results of the study are discussed in terms of a learning framework with the aim of explicitly developing crisis managers’ ability to interact and communicate with citizens in crisis situations.
  • Sörenson, Karl, 1978- (författare)
  • Comparable Deterrence : Target, Criteria and Purpose
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Defence Studies. - 1470-2436. ; 17:2, s. 198-213
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The last decade has seen several advances in the study of deterrence. These advances have sparked some strong disagreements regarding interpretation of the models and what their contributions signify. This paper appraises the discussions from a model theoretic perspective. It is argued that when comparing rivalling models three aspects; (i) target, (ii) criteria and (iii) type of purpose should be taken into account in order to make a proper appraisal. Informed by these aspects it is evident that the three deterrence models analysed address different aspects, in different ways and to different ends. From this perspective, the so-called Perfect Deterrence model must be recognised as a clear advancement in the research field. Model comparison will always be context relative and a plurality of models should be viewed favourably.
  • Bang, Martin, et al. (författare)
  • Influences on threat assessment in a military context
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Defense and Security Analysis. - 1475-1798. ; 32:3, s. 264-277
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The anchoring effect is a well-studied subject. This article connects the effect with the rules-in-use within a military intelligence institution. Particularly the rules-in-use that dictate that an analyst takes his or hers starting point from recently conducted assessments of the specific area or threat. The threat assessment as well as the written assessment were affected. The results show that officers have an aversion to lower a previous given threat assessment. This gives that to understand risk assessment we not only need to understand the methods used, we also need to understand the institutions in which they are used. This is especially relevant for military intelligence as the assessments are conducted in an environment of high uncertainty.
  • Katastrofriskreducering: Perspektiv, praktik, potential
  • 2016
  • Samlingsverk (redaktörskap) (övrigt vetenskapligt)abstract
    • Varför bosätter sig människor på riskfyllda platser? Hur beter sig människor i en katastrof och vilken betydelse har religion, hushåll och försörjning för återhämtning? Lär vi oss av våra kriserfarenheter och vilken roll spelar motivation och kollektiva minnen för detta? Är kapacitetsutveckling, multisektoriell samverkan och övning en hållbar väg mot reducerad katastrofrisk? Dessa är några av de många frågor som denna bok besvarar. Katastrofriskreducering är ett växande område, såväl politiskt som inom forskning och utbildning. Det handlar om att förstå de samhällsprocesser som skapar risk för katastrofer och som påverkar villkoren för organisationer och individer att hantera dem. Denna kunskap kan bidra till att minska exponering och sårbarhet för människor, egendom och miljö och utveckla samhällens, organisa­tioners och enskildas förmåga att reducera risker och hantera katastrofers konsekvenser, vad som på senare tid kallas resiliens. Katastrofriskreducering innehåller både teoretiska kapitel och empiriska fallstudier baserade på aktuell forskning om katastrofrisk­reducering.Boken ger läsaren en god översikt av detta mång­vetenskapliga kunskapsområde, genom att beskriva och problematisera centrala begrepp och perspektiv. Det här är en bok som vänder sig till såväl studenter och forskare som praktiskt verksamma beslutsfattare inom krisberedskap, humanitära insatser och riskhantering på myndigheter, i kommunal verksamhet och i icke-statliga organisationer.
  • Liwång, Hans, et al. (författare)
  • An examination of the implementation of risk based approaches in military operations
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Journal of Military Studies. - Helsinki : National Defense University, Finland and Finnish Society of Military Sciences. - 1799-3350. ; 5:2, s. 1-27
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Today several nations utilise risk based approaches in military planning. However, the discussion on limitations with the approaches in regard to aspects such as uncertainties, the nature of the threat and risk to civilians is limited.The aim of this work is to identify important challenges when applying risk based approaches to military activity. This article discusses risk based approaches in general and their military applications. Five generic quality requirements on risk analysis are presented from research in risk philosophy. Two military application areas for risk analysis: military intelligence, and risk management in legal assessments are analysed in relation to the presented quality requirements on risk analysis.From the analysis it is clear that risk analysis is an integral part of the decision-making analysis and cannot be separated in time, space or organisationally from the decision-making process in general. Defining the scenario to analyse, including the time span, is a central task in risk analysis and will affect every aspect of the risk estimation. Therefore, the principles for scenario definition must be communicated and continuously updated throughout the organisation. Handling the uncertainties throughout the process is also important, especially if the aim is a resilient military system.
  • Liwång, Hans, 1974- (författare)
  • Risk-based ship security analysis – an approach based on civilian and military methods
  • 2012
  • Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt)abstract
    • The demands on maritime operations today are increasingly higher in terms of control, efficiency and cost. The margins for accidents and security incidents are therefore decreasing. In the area of ship safety the regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicized and therefore not as transparent. The result is that a tradition of ship security is not as well established.The overall aim of this thesis is to propose a method for ship security analysis that increases the overall safety of the crew and the ship. The objective is to develop a method that is systematic in order to ensure that assessment and response are complete and effective, and that the process is documented to provide evidence of decision-making.The method used is probabilistic risk assessment where quantitative analysis is central. The proposed approach is consistent with the requirements of maritime safety work. However, in the work here, the proposed methods are specifically tested for security cases. This is because hazards (without intent) and threats (with intent) evolve in different ways into risk. Therefore, they must be analysed differently in order to capture the causal relationship.The proposed approach consists of three steps: the first step consists of a threat description that documents qualitative and quantitative aspects that together describe how the threat most likely will act in relation to the ship’s vulnerability; the second step uses the threat description to define the system studied as well as the scenarios that collectively describe the harmful consequences; the third step evaluates the risk with tools from probabilistic risk assessment.The overall conclusion is that the proposed method brings the procedure and results of ship security analysis into the open and therefore allows for criticism, improvements and shared risk knowledge, not possible with less structured methods. The results also show that the calculated probabilities agree with available statistics, which indicates that the analysis succeeds in describing the central causal relationships of the scenarios modelled.
  • Weissmann, Mikael, 1977-, et al. (författare)
  • Endast genom anfall kan ett avgörande nås : Varför dominerar offensiven militärt taktiskt tänkande?
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Kungl Krigsvetenskapsakademiens Handlingar och Tidskrift. - 0023-5369. ; :2, s. 8-16
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This article analyses why the offensive dominates tactical thinking among Swedish officers. Having found that the large majority of Swedish officers think that the offensive dominates tactical thinking in the armed forces (6:1, 16:1 in the case of the army) ten possible reasons are identified and analysed. It found that the key factors for the dominance are military culture and education which together produce and reproduce the offensive bias. These are the factors with the most direct and deepest impact on the officer identity and understanding, form the foundation for tactical thinking, and work as a prism for other important factors.
  • Agrell, Wilhelm (författare)
  • Essence of Assessment : Methods and Problems of Intelligence Analysis
  • 2012
  • Bok (övrigt vetenskapligt)abstract
    • In some sense, I have written this book to summarize and clarify problems that I have been working on and researching in different ways since the beginning of the 1970s. However, the main aim, and my aspiration, is obviously for the book to contribute to an increasingly more essential awareness of and discussion on the opportunities and problems of analysis methods. The book is aimed at students and those interested with no previous experience or prior knowledge of intelligence as well as those on the analytical treadmill. At its very best, the methodological discussion has this natural universality. Wilhelm Agrell has a twin academic background in history, and in peace and conflict research. Since 2006 he is the first Professor in Intelligence analysis in Sweden. He has written extensively on military R&D, security policy, regional conflicts and the role and transformation of intelligence. He is a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences, and of the advisory board to the Swedish Security Service, and Visiting professor at the Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies at the National Defence College. Sir David Omand is Visiting Professor at King's College, London. He was the first UK Security and Intelligence Coordinator, responsible to the Prime Minister for the professional health of the intelligence community, national counter-terrorism strategy and "homeland security". Sir David served for seven years on the Joint Intelligence Committee. He was Permanent Secretary of the Home Office from 1997 to 2000, and before that Director of GCHQ.
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