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1.
  • Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10100, s. 1345-1422
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.METHODS: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined.FINDINGS: Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9-11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3-13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7-17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9-8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9-29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks.INTERPRETATION: Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade.FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies.
2.
  • Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10100, s. 1260-1344
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate.FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally.INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
3.
  • Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10100, s. 1211-1259
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.METHODS: We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228).INTERPRETATION: The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.
4.
  • Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10100, s. 1423-1459
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.METHODS: We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.FINDINGS: Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past.INTERPRETATION: GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
5.
  • Akerstrom, Magnus, et al. (författare)
  • Relationship between mercury in kidney, blood, and urine in environmentally exposed individuals, and implications for biomonitoring
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Toxicology and Applied Pharmacology. - 0041-008X. ; 320, s. 17-25
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Individuals without occupational exposure are exposed to mercury (Hg) from diet and dental amalgam. The kidney is a critical organ, but there is limited information regarding the relationship between Hg in kidney (K-Hg), urine (U-Hg), blood (B-Hg), and plasma (P-Hg). Objectives The aim was to determine the relationship between K-Hg, U-Hg, B-Hg, and P-Hg among environmentally exposed individuals, estimate the biological half-time of K-Hg, and provide information useful for biomonitoring of Hg. Methods Kidney cortex biopsies and urine and blood samples were collected from 109 living kidney donors. Total Hg concentrations were determined and the relationships between K-Hg, U-Hg, P-Hg, and B-Hg were investigated in regression models. The half-time of K-Hg was estimated from the elimination constant. Results There were strong associations between K-Hg and all measures of U-Hg and P-Hg (rp = 0.65–0.84, p < 0.001), while the association with B-Hg was weaker (rp = 0.29, p = 0.002). Mean ratios between K-Hg (in μg/g) and U-Hg/24h (in μg) and B-Hg (in μg/L) were 0.22 and 0.19 respectively. Estimates of the biological half-time varied between 30 and 92 days, with significantly slower elimination in women. Adjusting overnight urine samples for dilution using urinary creatinine resulted in less bias in relation to K-Hg or U-Hg/24h, compared with other adjustment techniques. Conclusions The relationship between K-Hg and U-Hg is approximately linear. K-Hg can be estimated using U-Hg and gender. Women have longer half-time of Hg in kidney compared to men. Adjusting overnight urine samples for creatinine concentration resulted in less bias.
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6.
  • Alpízar, Francisco, et al. (författare)
  • Spillovers from targeting of incentives: Exploring responses to being excluded
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Journal of Economic Psychology. - 0167-4870. ; 59, s. 87-98
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A growing set of policies involve transfers conditioned upon socially desired actions, such as attending school or conserving forest. However, given a desire to maximize the impact of limited funds by avoiding transfers that do not change behavior, typically some potential recipients are excluded on the basis of their characteristics, their actions or at random. This paper uses a laboratory experiment to study the behavior of individuals excluded on different bases from a new incentive that encourages real monetary donations to a public environmental conservation program. We show that the donations from the individuals who were excluded based on prior high contributions fell significantly. Yet the rationale used for exclusion mattered, in that none of the other selection criteria used as the basis for exclusion resulted in negative effects on contributions.
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7.
  • Andersson, Susanne, et al. (författare)
  • Attitudes Regarding Participation in a Diabetes Screening Test among an Assyrian Immigrant Population in Sweden
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Nursing Research and Practice. - 2090-1429.
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Immigrants from the Middle East have higher prevalence and incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) compared with native Swedes. The aim of the study was to describe and understand health beliefs in relation to T2D as well as attitudes regarding participation in a screening process in a local group of Assyrian immigrants living in Sweden. A qualitative and quantitative method was chosen in which 43 individuals participated in a health check-up and 13 agreed to be interviewed. Interviews were conducted, anthropometric measurements and blood tests were collected, and an oral glucose tolerance test was performed. In total, 13 of the 43 participants were diagnosed with impaired glucose metabolism, 4 of these 13 had TD2. The interviewed participants perceived that screening was an opportunity to discover more about their health and to care for themselves and their families. Nevertheless, they were not necessarily committed to taking action as a consequence of the screening. Instead, they professed that their health was not solely in their own hands and that they felt safe that God would provide for them. Assyrians’ background and religion affect their health beliefs and willingness to participate in screening for TD2.
8.
  • Aurelius, Johan, 1980-, et al. (författare)
  • NOX2-dependent immunosuppression in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Journal of Leukocyte Biology. - 0741-5400. ; 102:2, s. 459-466
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) is a myeloproliferative and myelodysplastic neoplasm with few treatment options and dismal prognosis. The role of natural killer (NK) cells and other antileukemic lymphocytes in CMML is largely unknown. We aimed to provide insight into the mechanisms of immune evasion in CMML with a focus on immunosuppressive reactive oxygen species (ROS) formed by the myeloid cell NADPH oxidase-2 (NOX2). The dominant population of primary human CMML cells was found to express membrane-bound NOX2 and to release ROS, which, in turn, triggered extensive PARP-1-dependent cell death in cocultured NK cells, CD8(+) T effector memory cells, and CD8(+) T effector cells. Inhibitors of ROS formation and scavengers of extracellular ROS prevented CMML cell-induced lymphocyte death and facilitated NK cell degranulation toward Ab-coated, primary CMML cells. In patients with CMML, elevation of immature cell counts (CD34(+)) in blood was associated with reduced expression of several NK cell-activating receptors. We propose that CMML cells may use extracellular ROS as a targetable mechanism of immune escape.
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9.
  • Bengtsson, Martin, et al. (författare)
  • Treatment outcome in orthognathic surgery-A prospective randomized blinded case-controlled comparison of planning accuracy in computer-assisted two- and three-dimensional planning techniques (part II)
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Journal of Cranio-Maxillofacial Surgery. - 1010-5182. ; 45:9, s. 1419-1424
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Purpose: The aim of the present study was to compare the accuracy of two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) prediction methods. The hypothesis was that a 3D technique would give a more accurate outcome of the postoperative result. Material and methods: Patients with severe class III occlusion were included and planed with both a 2D and 3D prediction technique. They were there after randomly subdivided into a control (2D) and test (3D) group and treated according to the technique randomized for. Cephalometric measurements from 2D and 3D predictions were compared with 12-month follow-up respectively. Together with an analysis of tracing error, placements of 3580 cephalometric markers, 2460 measurements, 680 intra-individual analyses and 1200 preop/postop comparisons were performed in 57 individuals. Results: Statistically significant differences for accuracy between the two groups were seen for 11/NSL-112/NSL2 and for A-A2 (p < 0.05). Both groups showed a high level of accuracy for SNA and SNB. The test group also showed a relatively high level of accuracy for 11/NSL and for the A-point. No prediction method achieves a perfect accuracy. As expected from this, measuring accuracy within each group showed statistically significant difference for all markers and cephalometric measurements (p < 0.001). Mandibular markers showed greater differences than maxillary markers. Conclusion: The present study indicates an equal high accuracy in predicting facial outcome for both studied techniques. However, in patients with asymmetry the three-dimensional technique has an obvious advantage.
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10.
  • Billstedt, Eva, et al. (författare)
  • Neurodevelopmental disorders in young violent offenders: Overlap and background characteristics
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Psychiatry Research. - 0165-1781. ; 252, s. 234-241
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Neurodevelopmental disorders (Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), tic disorder, intellectual disability (ID)), in prison populations have received increased attention but the focus has generally been on one single condition leaving out the global picture. This study assessed the prevalence and overlap of neurodevelopmental disorders (NDD) in a consecutive cohort (n=270) of young adult male offenders (age 18–25 years), sentenced for “hands-on” violent offences and serving prison time in Swedish prisons. Seventy-one percent of all who met inclusion criteria participated. Comprehensive clinical assessments were carried out including history of early antisocial behavior and maladjustment, self-report questionnaires and an intelligence test. Sixty-three percent of the study group met DSM-IV criteria for childhood ADHD, 43% for ADHD in adulthood, 10% met criteria for an ASD, 6% for Tourette syndrome, and 1% for ID. Twenty-two percent had borderline intellectual functioning. A substantial rate of overlap between the NDDs was found. The combined NDD group had an earlier onset of antisocial behavior, had more aggressive behavior and lower school achievements than the non-NDD group. The results highlight the need for prison and probation services to be attentive of and screen for neurodevelopmental disorders in young violent offenders.
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